SHIFT-CM: Advancing Scientific Integrity for Carbon Markets
What is SHIFT-CM?
Science for High Integrity Frameworks to Transform Carbon Markets (SHIFT-CM) is a multi-stakeholder initiative focused on improving the scientific foundation of Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) crediting. Led by Yale University and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) the initiative aims to develop good practice guidance and research priorities to support the emergence of the next generation of carbon markets.
SHIFT-CM builds scientific consensus and practical tools to make NCS crediting projects more measurable, durable, equitable, and effective.
The Challenge: Why does SHIFT-CM exist?
Despite progress, carbon markets still struggle with credibility and trust. Key concerns remain around the transparency, consistency, and scientific rigor behind NCS-based credits. SHIFT-CM responds to this challenge by providing empirical research and solutions to the most pressing questions in nature-based carbon accounting. With more than 140 world-renowned scientists and market experts on our roster, we are poised to ensure that market policy decisions are made using robust scientific evidence, encouraging innovation, and breeding efficiency.
Our Objectives: What does SHIFT-CM aim to achieve?
1. Set Applied Research Priorities for NCS Crediting
Six expert working groups are working to develop forward-looking, science-based guidance on specific topics, as outlined below.
2. Put Forward Science-Backed Solutions
Research outputs will focus on providing practical, rigorous recommendations for the market to act upon.
3. Bridge to Standards
SHIFT-CM will establish channels for its work to inform carbon market standards, and the ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCPs).
Structure & Participants: What We’re Up To
1. Research
SHIFT-CM is anchored by a coordinating hub and supported by six working groups, comprising scientists, NGOs, standard setters, and Indigenous representatives. Each working group will produce one or more deliverables to fill their respective research gaps, with a provisional deadline of December 2026.
- Optimizing climate solutions with durability considerations (NCS Pathways – All) – This group will lay out the advantages and limitations of each type of climate solution across industrial, natural, and engineered categories. Using this work as a basis, the group will also provide an idealized framework for investment in climate solutions over time, considering scale, cost, durability, and uncertainty.
- Digital MRV good practice guidance (NCS Pathways – Forests) – This group is working to develop practical, science-based guidance to strengthen digital MRV (dMRV) for nature-based carbon accounting. The group is working on two outputs: 1) a best practices paper defining core principles for high-integrity dMRV system design and implementation and 2) a paper on evaluating the performance of dMRV systems. Both pieces will provide the foundational principles needed to scale credible, transparent, and cost effective dMRV for nature-based carbon projects.
- Selecting baseline approaches (NCS Pathways – Forests) – This group aims to create best practice guidance for baseline setting and review of avoided deforestation projects through the development of deforestation risk mapping (ex-ante) approaches, methods for setting baseline plausibility bounds, and leading practices of dynamic baselines (ex-post). After creating the guidance, the group will consider developing a full manuscript.
- Beyond Buffer Pools: Market Mechanisms for Managing Non-Permanence Risk(NCS Pathways – All) – Working group members are writing a white paper that provides a standardized terminology and taxonomy of approaches that can reduce non-permanence risk, compensate for reversal events, and/or extend the guaranteed durability of NCS credits. The white paper will provide a qualitative analysis of seven major approaches that are active or proposed in the market today.
- Quantifying market leakage (NCS Pathways – Forests) – This group has focused its initial work on understanding leakage from Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects. The group modeled leakage outcomes under a wide range of conditions and was able to identify four major drivers of IFM leakage, which enable more nuanced, accurate approaches to leakage accounting. That information will be presented in a scientific manuscript and is also the basis for an IFM leakage accounting tool that the group is currently developing through a collaboration with Verra. Future areas of work will include both further work to inform forest-based leakage accounting, as well as expanding to other land cover types.
- Mapping durability risk (NCS Pathways – Forests) – This group aims to map variation in reversal risks for forests across the globe. The team is currently working to produce maps that separately identify (1) the likelihood of natural risk (leveraging existing and on-going science products), (2) the fraction of carbon lost upon disturbance (via an extensive meta-analysis of thousands of papers), and (3) the likelihood of carbon recovery.
2. Market engagement
SHIFT-CM has entered into a strategic advisory agreement with the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM), the global standard-setter for high-integrity carbon credits. This collaboration bridges scientific research and market governance, ensuring that SHIFT-CM’s evidence-based work informs ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles and Continuous Improvement Work Programs. ICVCM, in turn, provides visibility into emerging policy gaps and methodological questions, allowing SHIFT-CM to prioritize research that directly addresses the most pressing market challenges.
Nature4Climate’s Role: Supporting Integrity Through Communications
Nature4Climate (N4C) is providing strategic communications support to SHIFT-CM. The SHIFT-CM initiative is fully aligned with N4C’s broader mission to accelerate the development and deployment of high-integrity NCS. N4C works to increase awareness, understanding, and uptake of NCS in global climate action, with a strong focus on ensuring that markets for these solutions are scientifically credible, transparent, and trusted.
By supporting SHIFT-CM, N4C is helping to ensure that the initiative’s cutting-edge scientific work reaches and resonates with decision-makers, market actors, and the wider climate community. This includes:
- Amplifying SHIFT-CM updates and findings through the N4C platform and media channels.
- Aligning SHIFT-CM communications with broader efforts to promote high-integrity carbon markets and nature-based solutions.
- Connecting SHIFT-CM outputs to relevant stakeholders across policy, science, finance, and civil society to help translate research into action.
This collaboration ensures that SHIFT-CM’s science-backed recommendations have both the visibility and the influence needed to help shape the next generation of credible, effective carbon markets.
Stay Updated: Engage with SHIFT-CM
→ See full list of participants (below)
→ Sign up to the N4C Weekly Brief to receive updates and be the first to access new publications and guidance from SHIFT-CM.
Other Resources
- Quick Links
- Downloadable Resources
| Peter Ellis | The Nature Conservancy |
| Sara Kuebbing | Yale University |
| Max Bernal | The Nature Conservancy |
Optimizing climate solutions with durability considerations
This group will be led by Peter Ellis and Erin Poor at The Nature Conservancy. Broader membership is TBD.
Digital MRV good practice guidance
| Aaron Marr Page | Forum Nobis |
| Alessandro Baccini | Chloris Geospatial |
| Alexa Kleysteuber | Bezos Earth Fund |
| Barbara Bomfim | World Wildlife Fund |
| Charlotte Wheeler | University of Cambridge |
| Chloe Wardropper | University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign |
| Christopher Kilner | Isometric |
| Dick Cameron | Pachama |
| Ed Mitchard | Space Intelligence |
| Emily Dangremond | Wildlife Works |
| Jeremy Freund | Wildlife Works |
| Johanna Depenthal | Cool Effect |
| Kanyinke Sena | Indigenous People of Africa Coordinating Committee |
| Kurt Krapfl | American Carbon Registry |
| Lelya Barick | Open University of Tanzania |
| Lindsey Smart | The Nature Conservancy |
| Luke Sanford | Yale University |
| Nisa Novita | The Nature Conservancy |
| Rebecca Dickson | Terra Carbon |
| Reed Warren | ACR (Winrock) |
| Rose Pritchard | University of Manchester |
| Sarah Castle (Lead) | University of Wisconsin – Madison |
| Sassan Saatchi | NASA, CTrees, CIT |
| Savannah Gupton | Yale University |
| Steve Wood | The Nature Conservancy |
| Vincent Haller | Wildlife Works |
Selecting baseline approaches
This group will be led by Tom Swinfield at the Cambridge Center for Carbon Credits and Rebecca Dickson at TerraCarbon. Broader membership is TBD.
Compensating reversal risk (buffer pools and beyond) working group
| Bill Anderegg | University of Utah |
| Holly Pearen | Environmental Defense Fund |
| Ingrid Thyr | Yale University |
| Joe Fargione | The Nature Conservancy |
| Jordan Faires | Environmental Defense Fund |
| Lelya Barick | Open University of Tanzania |
| Liz Guinessey | Verra |
| Luke Pritchard | Beyond Alliance |
| Lynn Riley | American Forest Foundation |
| Michelle Kirchner | Yale University |
| Mikaela Weisse | ART TREES |
| Nathan Truitt | American Forest Foundation |
| Nicole Gotthard | Yale University |
| Noel Gurwick | University of Maryland |
| Racheal Notto | Kita |
| Rebecca Sanders-Demott | Clean Air Taskforce |
| Sara Kuebbing (Lead) | Yale University |
| Savannah Gupton (co-lead) | Yale University |
| Susan Cook-Patton | The Nature Conservancy |
| Will Gardner | Yale University |
Quantifying market leakage
This group will be led by Ethan Belair at The Nature Conservancy. Broader membership is TBD.
Mapping durability risk
This group will be led by Susan Cook-Patton at The Nature Conservancy, with the support of other TNC colleagues – Erin Poor, Nafiseh Haghtalab, Serge Wiltshire, and Luke Parsons.
*Note that SHIFT-CM members participate in an individual capacity. The views of SHIFT CM may not reflect those of individual members or their organizations and vice versa.
