COP 30 Delivers Progress — But Seems to Have Missed Its Moment

The Roadmaps That Weren’t

Even in this fractured landscape, a late-breaking surge brought unexpected unity. By the final days, over 90 countries, led by Brazil and backed by civil society, businesses, and scientists, rallied around a proposal to include a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, paired with a parallel roadmap to end deforestation. For a moment, it seemed the summit might deliver both.

In the end, neither survived the consensus rule of over 190 countries. The final text landed without roadmaps, leading many delegates to describe COP30 as a “missed opportunity.”

But this isn’t the full story. Significant steps were taken on adaptation, finance, and the recognition of Indigenous Peoples’ leadership — and those shifts will matter well beyond Belém.

The Mutirão Decision: One Text Trying to Hold the Whole Crisis Together

The Mutirão text was the gravitational centre of COP30’s second week — a sprawling attempt to weave the entire climate crisis into a single political decision. For days, negotiators openly questioned whether such a text could even exist, as the Presidency tried to pull together complex and politically sensitive issues, including the proposed roadmaps that ultimately fell away.

• Adaptation
  

Within this text, adaptation emerged as one of the most scrutinized areas — a key test of whether the COP could deliver tangible progress for vulnerable communities and ecosystems.

One of the clearest wins for nature was the inclusion of a goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035 — a major demand from vulnerable countries and civil society. But the final wording matters: the text “calls on efforts to” rather than commits Parties to action, the deadline was moved from 2030 to 2035, and there is no clarity on baseline, overall, significantly softening what could have been a decisive breakthrough. 

Still, after years of drift, the political signal is significant: COP30 acknowledged the urgency of the adaptation finance gap and the expiration of the previous goal, setting the stage for more concrete decisions at COP31.

• Mitigation

With the fossil-fuel roadmap blocked, the final text instead calls for launching a Global Implementation Accelerator, a cooperative and voluntary initiative to drive progress on mitigation across sectors and report back at COP31. Brazil has made clear it will not let the roadmap idea fade:

“This will be a Brazilian initiative — and we still have 11 months to go,” COP30 President Correa do Lago told journalists, hinting at a renewed push ahead of Turkiye.

• NDCs

By the close of COP30, the UNFCCC registry showed 120 updated climate plans — leaving more than 70 still missing. Current pledges put the world on a 2.5°C trajectory. The Mutirão decision urges countries to accelerate full implementation of NDCs while collectively striving to do better, alongside a new Belém Mission to 1.5°C that will report back at COP31.

Nature on the Negotiation Table 

Outside of the mutirão decision, two main tracks gathered the highest hopes for major outcomes for nature – and the results are once again bittersweet. 

The Global Goal for Adaptation working group was tasked this year to come out with a list of indicators to provide the first systematic, universal framework for measuring global progress in protecting communities and natural systems from escalating climate change impacts. This is a crucial step towards implementation, but the final negotiated pack has been undermined by a lack of transparency and a worsened quality of indicators, so the process of refining them must continue. 

Mandated, integrated action across the Rio Conventions also surfaced again this year — and while expectations were high, the outcome was modest. The main “win” was limited to securing a formal discussion space, with Parties agreeing to submit their views on synergies by May, feeding into more substantive negotiations in Bonn next year. Experts said the outcome it’s “more than nothing”, though still a disappointment, especially given the political momentum and the symbolic weight of COP30 taking place in Brazil.

A People’s COP: Indigenous Leadership at the Centre

COP30 was also defined by the unprecedented presence, leadership, and wins of Indigenous Peoples and local communities. From plenaries to press conferences to protest lines outside the Blue Zone, their voices were unavoidable — and transformative. The renewed $1.8 billion Forest and Land Tenure Pledge, paired with the Intergovernmental Land Tenure Commitment to recognise and strengthen 160 million hectares of Indigenous lands (63 million in Brazil alone), stands among the most meaningful outcomes of Belém.

A Finance COP from the backbone of the Baku-to-Belem Roadmap

Finance became the backbone of Belém’s implementation agenda. The Presidency’s Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, unveiled just one day before the COP began, provided the scaffolding for discussions, outlining how public, private, multilateral, and innovative finance must work in tandem to reach the trillions required.

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), Brazil’s flagship initiative of recent months, also dominated conversations. With Germany’s late confirmation of a €1 billion contribution, the Facility closed COP30 with US$6.5 billion mobilised — closer but not exactly there on the US$10 billion public funding goal Brazil set themselves by 2026..

Across pavilions and side events, there was a clear shift in the private sector’s engagement: investors and companies are finally treating nature as core to long-term climate resilience and economic growth, not as a side issue. The momentum was evident in the volume of announcements — from new commitments to forest protection and Indigenous-led finance, to significant pledges for ocean resilience — signaling a private sector that is increasingly convinced of the business case for investing with nature (see the full list of key announcements below). 

Yet, even with this surge of interest, the central question remains unresolved: can this momentum grow fast enough, and at sufficient scale, to match what science and communities say is needed?

Article 6 and Carbon Markets

In terms of carbon markets, the adoption of the Article 6.2 and 6.4 rules settled one major piece of the puzzle. For nature, however, the outcome is mixed. Integrity rules are now clearer, arrangements for funding transfers have been agreed, and uncertainty around governance has eased. But decisions on permanence, reversal risk and all nature methodologies have been pushed to 2026, and guidance on jurisdictional REDD+ has slipped down the agenda. As a result, the near-term finance signal for nature under Article 6 remains limited, even though the broader system stays open.

Outside the negotiating halls, there were important steps forward for high-integrity carbon markets, especially jurisdictional REDD+. The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets launched as a government-led effort to strengthen high-integrity corporate demand for carbon credits, with 11 governments now endorsing its Shared Principles for Growing High-Integrity Use of Carbon Credits. In week two, the Scaling J-REDD+ Coalition was announced, bringing together seven governments, Indigenous Peoples and local communities, civil society and the private sector to expand high-integrity forest carbon finance. Silvania and Itaú also issued a joint statement with Brazilian and global companies signalling support for jurisdictional forest protection and market integrity. The LEAF Coalition welcomed its first Asian corporate partner, Tencent, and signed new agreements with the Brazilian states of Goiás and Mato Grosso and the Dominican Republic. Finally, Emergent and Côte d’Ivoire signed a purchase agreement to commercialize high-integrity jurisdictional REDD+ emission credits as well.

Ahead of COP 30, the Nature4Climate Coalition published its key asks. Here’s how they stand as the summit closes:

Looking ahead to COP 31

COP30 in Belém may not have delivered the transformative breakthroughs some had hoped for, but it has moved the needle in crucial areas — adaptation, finance, Indigenous rights, and nature-based solutions. The momentum generated, particularly in private sector engagement and Indigenous-led initiatives, offers hope. The challenge ahead is translating these announcements into tangible action at scale. With COP31 on the horizon, the work begun in the heart of the Amazon could yet become a meaningful pathway toward a 1.5°C future.