New Analysis: Nature Gains Ground in 2035 NDCs, But Implementation Remains an ‘If’

11.09.25

Belém will take center stage to track progress on the latest NDCs. Photo: COP30.br

A new analysis from the Nature4Climate Coalition reveals that nature-based solutions (NbS) are gaining visibility in the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted this year. Mentions of NbS have increased compared to previous commitments under the Paris Agreement, with notable progress in coastal zone targets from countries like Brazil and the UK. However, with the September deadline soon to pass, only 34 nations have updated their climate plans since COP29, and most still lack standalone targets and detailed implementation strategies for NbS.

Where Nature Is Advancing

United Kingdom: Reaffirms £11.6 billion in international climate finance by 2026, with £3 billion earmarked for nature. Includes forest cover expansion, peatland restoration, and marine spatial planning.
Brazil: Strengthens its stance on illegal deforestation and highlights coastal ecosystems as key to its plans. Introduces the Pact for Ecological Transformation—a cross-government commitment to long-term ecological action.
Ecuador: Emphasizes ecosystem preservation and endemic species protection as part of its natural heritage.

What’s Next

This month, UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to urge countries to submit maximally ambitious NDCs. COP30, hosted in Belém this November, will feature a global temperature check to assess how close current plans bring us to the 1.5ºC goal.

Natural climate solutions could deliver up to one-third of the emissions reductions needed to meet that target—while also supporting biodiversity, livelihoods of Indigenous and local communities, and climate adaptation and resilience. Click here to check an analysis comparing countries’ carbon reduction targets with the mitigation potential of natural climate solutions, using data from the open-access naturebase platform.

Editor’s Notes on Methodology

This analysis was generated using GreenSearch AI and reviewed by the Nature4Climate Coalition’s advocacy group. It draws on the 15 guiding recommendations outlined in the second edition of the Guide to Including Nature in NDCs – Second Ed., developed to support national policymakers and technical experts in revising and implementing 2025 NDCs. The guide emphasizes a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, integrating nature across mitigation, adaptation, and loss & damage targets, and calls for robust implementation and financing strategies to ensure nature-based solutions are not just mentioned—but delivered.

The analysis focuses solely on the content of the NDCs submitted to date and does not incorporate external policy statements or unofficial commitments. It aims to provide a transparent, comparative overview of how nature is being integrated into national climate strategies.

Explore Country-Specific Analyses

To dive deeper into how nature-based solutions are being addressed in each country’s NDC, we invite you to explore the individual analyses for:

More analysis to follow shortly, and upon the publication of further NDCs.

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New NDCs: How nature can help countries meet 2035 carbon targets

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Summary: Brazil

Key updates from previous NDC
● Targets for the NDC appear to be on the same trajectory, however, because the NDC has this range target, it is overall more ambitious, if Brazil works towards the top of the range (67%).
● New NDC is longer and goes into more detail and provides a better structure, for example “The Pact for Ecological Transformation” (p.3-6) has detailed some commitments.
● New NDC outlines detailed decrees that have been and are intended to be made, such as strengthening the management and compliance with (enforcement of) the Forest Code especially inter-federation collaboration.

Key conclusions
● Brazil’s updated NDC provides further ambition in the possibility of using Article 6. If this is not fully enabled, ambitions are in line with the 1st NDC submitted in 2023.
● Details of the NDC will provide a strong foundation for the Country’s Climate Plan. The 2nd Brazilian NDC provides much more detail on how ambitions and targets will be achieved and provides good insights and foundations into the journey the country will be on to mitigate and adapt to Climate Change.
● Inclusion of the Pact for Ecological Transformation, a commitment among the three branches of Brazils governance institutions (the Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches) to act harmoniously and cooperatively on Brazil’s long-term vision of ecological transformation is unprecedented.
● The Brazilian Climate Plan will include the topic of the Ocean and Coastal Zones for the fi rst time.
● Brazil’s vision for the country in 2035 is one of “Climate Justice” and inclusion of indigenous peoples, however, it lacks a detailed plan for the wider role of civil society in development and implementation. Although there is ambition to reinvigorate a dialogue with civil society there is a lack of detail on their wider role (in development and implementation).

>>>READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

Summary: Ecuador

Key updates from previous NDC

Ecuador’s Second NDC differs from its First NDC in several key aspects, including its time frame, emissions reduction targets, and methodological approach. While the Second NDC extends its target year to 2035 and incorporates a broader scope by including the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector, its emissions reduction targets represent a lower percentage and absolute reduction compared to the First NDC.

In the First NDC, the Business-as-Usual (BAU) emissions for 2025 were projected at 76,900 kt CO₂-eq, with:
● Unconditional reduction target of 9,130 kt CO₂-eq (9%)
● Conditional reduction target of 15,680 kt CO₂-eq (20.4%)

In the Second NDC, the BAU reference point is based on a trend projection from 2010, Ecuador commits to:
● Unconditional reduction target of 8,800 kt CO₂-eq (7%), relative to a trend-based BAU projection for 2010 across all mitigation sectors.
● Conditional reduction target of 10,600 kt CO₂-eq (8%), contingent on international support.
Additionally, the Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) indicates that Ecuador’s actual 2022 emissions (~88,262 kt CO₂-eq) were higher than the previously estimated ~73,000 kt CO₂-eq.
While the Second NDC adjusts its approach to emissions reductions, it also introduces several enhancements:
● The inclusion of LULUCF, which accounts for approximately 29.26% of Ecuador’s total emissions, within the economy-wide target.
● A more detailed estimation of financial resources needed for implementation.
● The incorporation of a Loss and Damage component.
● A stronger emphasis on nature conservation and restoration: The Second NDC expands NbS
(now covering water conservation and desertification, whereas the first NDC only broadly mentioned forests). However, the mitigation target is less ambitious in percentage terms.

Key conclusions
● Ecuador’s Second NDC outlines mitigation targets that are less ambitious in certain respects compared to the First NDC. However, the Second NDC expands adaptation and loss & damage efforts, including a detailed financial needs assessment, LULUCF integration, and a stronger focus on nature conservation and restoration, signaling a more comprehensive approach to climate resilience.
● More nature-based targets are included, but they lack specificity. While the NDC expands its
scope to include more ecosystem-focused actions, the absence of SMART (Specific, Measurable,
Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) targets limits accountability and tracking progress.
● Strong institutional and governance framework. The NDC clearly outlines a solid institutional and policy structure, creating an enabling environment for implementation. However, ensuring effective coordination across sectors will be key to success.
● Stakeholder participation is a major strength, but climate justice could be better integrated
into targets. The NDC demonstrates strong public engagement, particularly through territorial workshops and inclusion of cross-cutting themes (gender, interculturality, intergenerationality). However, climate justice principles are not deeply embedded in the targets themselves, and more effort is needed to ensure equitable benefit-sharing mechanisms.
● Key gaps remain: reliance on conditional financing and economic dependence on fossil fuel
exports. A large portion of the NDC’s commitments rely on external financing, making implementation uncertain without secured funding. Additionally, Ecuador’s continued dependence on fossil fuel exports presents a structural challenge for long-term low-carbon development.

>>> READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

Summary: UAE

Key updates from previous NDC
● The UAE’s Third NDC (NDC 3.0) sets an absolute emissions reduction target of 47% by 2035 compared to a 2019 baseline, significantly increasing ambition from previous targets which were based on a business-as-usual scenario. 3 The previous target for 2030 was set at 208 MtCO2e, which has now been revised to 182 MtCO2e, representing a 19% reduction relative to 2019.
● The new NDC incorporates a whole-of-economy approach, expanding beyond sector-specific targets to include comprehensive plans for all domestic sectors, such as power and water generation, heavy industry, transport, waste, buildings, and agriculture. This shift reflects a more integrated strategy for emissions reductions.
● The UAE has introduced new policy frameworks and initiatives to support its climate goals, including the Federal Decree-Law No. (11) of 2024, which provides a legal framework for climate action. (p.18) This law underpins the NDC targets and emphasizes the importance of accountability and transparency in emissions reporting. (p.18)
● The NDC 3.0 also emphasizes the role of nature-based solutions in carbon dioxide removal (p.39), indicating a commitment to enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of its climate strategy. (p.54) This includes the establishment of Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and initiatives for afforestation, particularly with date palms, to sequester carbon. (p.54)
● The UAE has launched the National Dialogue for Climate Ambition (NDCA) to engage non-government stakeholders, including private sector entities and local NGOs, in the NDC development process. This platform facilitates collaboration across various sectors and aims to enhance climate action through Shared commitments.
● The NDC outlines specific adaptation plans for vulnerable groups, including youth, women, and people of determination, ensuring that climate strategies are inclusive and equitable. This focus on inclusivity is a new theme in the updated NDC, reflecting a broader understanding of the social dimensions of climate action.
● The UAE’s commitment to innovation and technology is highlighted through its national technology and R&D strategy, which aims to support the deployment of low-carbon technologies, including hydrogen and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The UAE’s Net Zero Strategy is expected to create approximately 160,000 jobs annually between 2025 and 2050, further linking climate action to economic growth. (p.66)

Key conclusions
● The UAE’s updated NDC (NDC 3.0) sets an ambitious target of reducing emissions by 47% by 2035 compared to a 2019 baseline, marking a significant increase in commitment from previous submissions. This shift from business-as-usual targets to absolute emissions reductions enhances clarity and transparency in tracking progress. (p.4)
● The NDC emphasizes a whole-of-economy approach, integrating various sectors and ensuring comprehensive government ownership and stakeholder engagement. This participatory process reflects a commitment to inclusivity and the alignment of climate action with socio-economic growth. (p.4)
● Critical gaps remain, particularly in reliance on conditional financing and the need for advanced technologies to meet ambitious targets. The NDC highlights the importance of scaling adaptation finance and reforming global financial architecture to support vulnerable communities. (p.5)
● The UAE has made significant strides in international cooperation, exemplified by the UAE Consensus and commitments made during COP28, which emphasize the need for ambitious emission reduction targets and adaptation strategies. The establishment of the Group of Friends of Culture-Based Climate Action at COP28 further illustrates the UAE’s commitment to integrating cultural heritage into climate strategies. (p.60)
● The NDC also identifies the necessity for enhanced capacity building and technological innovation, particularly in the private sector, to achieve its net-zero goals by 2050. The UAE’s focus on developing a robust MRV Transparency System will support effective monitoring and reporting of emissions, ensuring accountability in climate action. (p.87)

New Analysis: Nature Gains Ground in 2035 NDCs, But Implementation Remains an ‘If’

Read more

Where Nature Is Advancing

What’s Next

Editor’s Notes on Methodology

Explore Country-Specific Analyses

More analysis to follow shortly, and upon the publication of further NDCs.

New NDCs: How nature can help countries meet 2035 carbon targets

Browse news by content category:

Subscribe to our Weekly Brief.

Summary: Brazil

>>>READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

Summary: UK

>>> READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

Summary: Canada

>>> READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

SUMMARY: NEW ZEALAND

>>> READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

Summary: Ecuador

>>> READ THE FULL ANALYSIS

Summary: UAE

>>> READ THE FULL ANALYSIS