Photo: Ministério do Meio Ambiente e Mudança Climática - Brasil
In short:
– Countries that signed the Paris Agreement must submit, before COP30, updated climate action plans with targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. So far, only 22 nations have done so.
– As the deadline approaches, the role of nature in achieving these targets is becoming increasingly critical. Nature-based solutions can contribute up to one-third of the necessary emissions reductions while also helping communities adapt to the severe impacts of climate change.
– N4C has been providing countries with guidance on how to increase ambition on Nature in their NDCs – Guide for Including Nature in Nationally Determined Contributions.
– To illustrate this potential, Nature4Climate is launching an analysis comparing countries’ carbon reduction targets with the mitigation potential of natural climate solutions, using data from the open-access naturebase platform.
– In many countries, nature-based solutions can contribute significantly to 2035 targets, with Brazil and Ecuador as key examples; financing these solutions in developing countries is crucial for global climate action.
New Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have started to come out, giving the world a sense of the level of ambition placed upon tackling the climate crisis before the end of the decade. With less than six months until the new deadline and amid political turmoil, we can’t but feel anxious and get stuck on the question – will it be enough?
Nature-based solutions can contribute to up to one-third of the agreed 2035 targets. Moreover, these actions are vital for enabling communities to adapt to and resist the severe impacts of climate change already happening. To showcase how nature can be a powerful ally in helping countries meet their ambition, the Nature4Climate coalition is introducing an exclusive analysis featuring comparative data on the carbon reduction targets set by countries for the next decade and the potential carbon mitigation from natural climate solutions in those same territories.
Insights from the analysis, which uses N4C’s open data platform naturebase, indicate that in many of these countries, a large part or even the entirety of their determined contribution could be met by implementing interventions around the protection, conservation, and restoration of natural ecosystems.
For instance, Brazil plans to reduce between 832 and 1033 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2) in the next decade by adopting strategies to reduce fossil fuel use and eliminate deforestation. In this context, if the country fully harnesses its potential in nature-based solutions, it could achieve more than half of its target, reaching up to 60%. In Ecuador, virtually the entire climate target could be met solely through reforestation measures.
Insights from naturebase
The analysis considers the total mitigation target outlined by each NDC by converting the reduction percentage or range into MtCO2 compared with each country’s declared baseline. The potential of nature in this equation is then derived from data on the free naturebase platform, which shows how 20 different nature pathways can be applied to provide the highest carbon mitigation impact with benefits to ecosystems and livelihoods.
The numbers in the table are estimates that consider all possible actions that can be adopted in the different pathways, such as agroforestry techniques, reforestation, or avoiding forest conversion. The analysis, therefore, does not place judgement on levels of ambition, once decisions on interventions made inside territories often involve other variables, such as available funding, regulatory frameworks, land tenure and livelihoods, as well as the technical capacity to implement those.
Understanding the potential for nature’s pathways is however a strong indication that protecting nature combined with strong energy transition measures can help governments increase their climate action planning. The data also indicates that financing nature-based solutions in developing countries is an effective strategy to enhance global climate action.
Check the potential of nature to address the new 2035 carbon targets:
The data in the table above is continuously reviewed and updated to align with the latest NDC releases. For more information on the potential of natural climate solutions in your region, please visit naturebase.org
What are NDCs?
By September 2025, countries signatories of the Paris Agreement must submit updated climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outlining their targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
So far, less than 30 out of 195 nations have published revised plans. The last round of updated NDCs was kickstarted last November by the COP 29 host country, the United Arab Emirates, and the next COP host, Brazil.
The expectation is that countries will enhance their mitigation targets and present coherent plans to reach as close as possible to net-zero emissions. Nature can provide up to one-third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the global target, while recognising nature as a key partner in addressing the triple planetary crisis, including biodiversity loss.
**For media inquiries, contact us at mariana.ceccon@tnc.org or p.damattaalves@tnc.org